Deep U.S. cuts may affect Canadian hurricane forecasts this summer
Steep cuts to federal staffing stateside could have trickle down effects for Canadians this hurricane season
Weather knows no borders. Cooperation between meteorologists around the world is key to keeping all of us safe, no matter where we live, work, or relax.
Dramatic cuts to the federal government in the United States could threaten meteorological cooperation and the basic underpinnings of accurate weather forecasting—an unsettling prospect heading into the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Here’s what these cuts and changes could mean for Canadian hurricane forecasts ahead of this summer.
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Close international cooperation may be in danger
Canadians largely hear from two agencies when a hurricane swirls over the Atlantic Ocean: the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) and the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Forecasters with the CHC are responsible for issuing tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for Canadian territory, as well as issuing tropical cyclone information statements to relay information and guidance on approaching storms.
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization tasks the NHC with issuing official forecasts for any tropical systems that churn over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The NHC is a branch of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), which falls under the umbrella of NOAA.
Experts at the NHC work closely with the CHC when a storm is on track to threaten Canadian waters. In fact, the NHC works with the governments of every country that borders the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins to coordinate forecasts, watches, and warnings ahead of an approaching storm.
That routine cooperation could be in danger as we head into this upcoming summer.
Some NOAA employees “have received orders to temporarily cease communicating with foreign nationals, including those working directly with the US government,” according to an order obtained by the publication WIRED on Feb. 5, 2025.
“The message states that the orders extend to participation in international commissions and even emails ‘with foreign national colleagues,’” WIRED reported.
Job cuts threaten hurricane hunters
Dramatic layoffs across the U.S. federal government haven’t left the country’s weather agencies unscathed.
Last month, the Trump administration laid off thousands of ‘probationary’ federal employees, which in general terms refers to employees who’ve occupied their roles for less than a year. Many probationary employees are actually seasoned veterans in their field who’ve recently obtained a promotion or slotted over into a new position.
While the future of these fired probationary employees remains uncertain in the face of ongoing legal actions, dozens—if not hundreds—of meteorologists within the NWS were among those laid off.
A NOAA WP-3D Orion N43RF aircraft flies through Tropical Storm Idalia on Aug. 28, 2023. (NOAA)
Several of those federal employees were members of the hurricane hunters—teams that fly into the eye of a storm to collect invaluable data about these dangerous systems.
“This is particularly problematic since every hurricane hunter mission is required to carry a flight director – a meteorologist who is charged with ensuring the safety of the mission from a meteorological perspective,” wrote Dr. Jeff Masters for Yale Climate Connections. Dr. Masters is a former hurricane hunter himself.
Cuts eliminate vital weather balloon launches
The impact of job cuts extends beyond the ability to directly track storms.
Thousands of meteorologists monitor the weather around the clock from 122 National Weather Service offices around the United States. These offices are commonly short-staffed under normal conditions—and they’re even more hamstrung in the face of federal layoffs.
“Effective immediately, and until further notice, the National Weather Service (NWS) is temporarily suspending some weather balloon launches in Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine, due to a lack of Weather Forecast Office (WFO) staffing,” the agency said in a memo circulated on Mar. 7.
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Additional cuts several weeks later disrupted balloon launches at eight more sites, including the complete termination of launches from Omaha, Nebraska, as well as Rapid City, South Dakota.
American weather balloon launches are an important piece of the puzzle for Canadian forecasters—especially sites located upwind in Alaska, as well as near-border locations throughout the northern U.S.
Weather balloons are a crucial part of the weather forecasting process. Radiosondes attached to the balloons collect detailed temperature, humidity, air pressure, and wind data as they rise through the atmosphere.
The data collected by radiosondes are fed into computer models to initialize these programs, providing an accurate picture of what’s happening in the atmosphere right now so they can predict what will happen tomorrow and beyond.
Losing this many weather balloon launches could adversely affect weather models going forward.
These balloons may seem like one data point, but the introduction of even a small error at the beginning of a weather model’s run can have big implications for the model’s accuracy as it runs several days into the future. This is no small issue during hurricane season when time is of the essence in predicting where the storm will track as it closes in on land.
Contains files from WIRED and Yale Climate Connections.