Canada's tornado count rises but this province is noticeably at zero still
With Canada's 2025 tornado tally likely to hit seven after recent investigations, it's hard to overlook that one province in particular hasn't documented a twister, yet, this year
If you're keeping tabs on Canada's tornado season this year, you will find most of the usual hot spots in the country have recorded at least one...except for Ontario.
With recent verifications of multiple tornadoes in Manitoba, and Quebec's probable second twister of the year, Ontario--which is averages just more than 18 tornadoes a year-- is still waiting to document its first one in 2025.
SEE ALSO: Canada's first tornado of the year ties Ontario's earliest on record
It's a bit later than usual, with May 12 earmarked as the average date of the latest occurrence in the year of its first tornado from 2014-2024, especially since it saw a March 16 twister last year--tying its own record for the earliest in a yearly period.
Here are the dates of Ontario's first tornado in the year from 2014-2024. As previously mentioned, May 12 is the median date of it occurring.
2024: March 16
2023: June 13
2022: May 15
2021: May 25
2020: June 8
2019: June 2
2018: June 13
2017: April 11
2016: March 16
2015: May 30
2014: May 13
Taking them into account, Ontario averages 1.3 tornadoes in May and 18.3 in one year.
When could Ontario see its first 2025 tornado?
So, when could Ontario see its first 2025 tornado? We know it's going to happen, sooner or later. It's just a question of when.
But it's not likely going to happen in the short range or even by the end of this month. In fact, Ontario will soon see conditions opposite of what is needed for tornado development.
Southern Ontario is on tap to see its coldest May stretch since 1967 this week, with temperatures set to drop several degrees--accompanied by periods of rain.
For example, Toronto’s high temperature this week from May 21 to 23 is forecast to hover near 10°C -- the coldest stretch for those specific dates since May 1967, the very same month the Toronto Maple Leafs last hoisted the Stanley Cup.
While we can't pinpoint an exact or rough time frame, it's safe to say we're looking at sometime in June as the next chance for Ontario to nab its first tornado in 2025. As it stands, temperatures should trend back to near seasonal as we head into the start of June.
With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.