These Canadian cities are almost guaranteed a white Christmas
It’s make-or-break time for towns across Canada to get snow on the ground in time for Christmas morning. Who will make the cut?
The big day is just around the corner and we’re getting a clearer picture of which towns across Canada may see a blanket of white on the ground come Christmas morning.
Overall, your odds of a true white Christmas are looking much better this year than they were last year, where some cities saw an improbable “green Christmas” thanks to El Niño’s mild influence across the country.
Bouts of winter weather have already spread from British Columbia to Newfoundland so far this season. But the big question, as always, is where that snow will stick around until next Wednesday.
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Read on for our updated look at who has the best odds of seeing a white Christmas this year in Canada.
Rough odds of a white Christmas in B.C.
A white Christmas is a rarity in Vancouver, where the historical odds of seeing at least 2 cm of snow on the ground the morning of Dec. 25 sits at a paltry 11 percent.
It's sad news for snow-lovers in the region as this year doesn’t appear to be a repeat of Christmas 2021. The odds of a white Christmas in Vancouver and Victoria are a whopping zero percent. Sorry, kids.
Folks at higher elevations and throughout B.C.’s Interior will have to monitor the freezing level as we get closer to the middle of the week. It appears that mild air will have the edge as a parade of storms sweeps into the region, so there are only low chances of a white Christmas at the valley bottoms.
The odds look better on the Prairies
Meanwhile, things are looking a little better for parts of the Prairies.
Above-freezing temperatures are forecast to sneak over the Rockies leading up to Christmas, evaporating any chance of snow on the ground around Calgary.
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It’s the opposite story for the rest of the Prairies, though, where snow on the ground on Christmas morning is all but guaranteed. Subzero temperatures will hold on for the majority of the Prairies heading into the middle of next week, allowing the current snowpack to stick around.
This means that folks in and around Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg are virtually assured a white Christmas this year.
Ontario and Quebec are a tricky forecast
If you’re crossing your fingers and wearing your pajamas inside out in the hopes of egging on the snow, your wishes aren’t completely dashed across Ontario and Quebec.
A cold pattern sweeping into the region this weekend will keep temperatures nice and frigid in the days leading up to Christmas.
Folks around the snowbelt and through eastern Ontario—including Ottawa—have a decent chance of keeping their snowpack through Christmas morning. The odds are also looking good for folks up around Thunder Bay and Timmins, where cold temperatures will maintain the existing snowpack into next week.
A system moving in for Christmas Eve will bring near-freezing temperatures with the risk for a rain-snow mix, which could significantly reduce the chance of a white Christmas along the shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Toronto’s odds of waking up to snow on the ground Christmas morning are a tossup.
Montreal doesn’t have any snow on the ground right now, and we only have a medium chance of picking up appreciable snowfall between now and next Wednesday. Things are looking much better up toward Quebec City, which has a high chance of snow on the ground come the big day.
A significant winter storm rolling up the East Coast to start the weekend will put much of Atlantic Canada in a fantastic position if you’re hoping for an official white Christmas.
Very heavy snow is expected across much of the Maritimes into Saturday. This snowfall, combined with cold temperatures filtering in behind the storm, all but guarantees a white Christmas for folks in cities like Halifax, Fredericton, and Charlottetown.
Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula will stay on the warm side of the storm, so the odds of a white Christmas are low for St. John’s.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest updates on your holiday snowfall report.