Why lake breezes could be stealing some 20°C spring days in parts of Ontario
Warmer temperatures are forecast mid and late week across southern Ontario, but pesky spring lake breezes will keep the GTA cooler
Consistent warm spring weather has been tough to find this year across southern Ontario, with teases of milder conditions only lasting days at time.
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The next blast of warm weather will hit southwestern Ontario mid and late week, with three days of 20°C daytime highs forecast for Windsor. Highs in the 20s will also creep inland to cities like London, Kitchener, and Waterloo.
Unfortunately, for those around the Golden Horseshoe, the 20-degree weather will be much harder to find -- and you can thank the influence of Lake Ontario for that.
Lake Ontario’s current temperature is around 2°C, and over top of the water is a very chilly airmass. In the presence of easterly winds, that cold air over the water is pushed onto the lakeshores. This significantly cools temperatures for those around the immediate lakeshores.
For much of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), especially the west end through to Hamilton, daytime highs in the teens are forecast on Wednesday and Friday. Some lakeshore areas however, will struggle to even reach the double digits.
A change in wind direction and warmer weather is possible Thursday, but with a trough bringing in some unsettled weather.
There is a small risk for a passing shower and thunderstorm Thursday and Friday across the south, but these days will not be washout.
Saturday will be brisk and cooler, with temperatures returning to seasonal values on Sunday.
Will temperatures finally flip the switch in May?
We are watching the potential for a couple days of much warmer weather next week, but as we often see this time of year, some lakeshore areas could miss out once again due to the chilly waters of the Great Lakes.
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Changeable temperatures are expected during early May, but we should finally tip to the warm side of seasonal.