A sneak peek at Western Canada’s winter wild cards
Much of Western Canada may experience a strong start to winter this year
Gone are the days of 30-degree temperatures and vivacious thunderstorms. We’ve already seen some wintry conditions spill across Western Canada, and there’s plenty more on the way.
What does winter have in store for Western Canada this year? This could be an interesting season with several wild cards in play. Here's a preliminary sneak peek that may provide an early boost to cold-weather lovers.
DON’T MISS: Canada’s winter sneak peek holds an abrupt transition to winter
Pacific waters set the stage for Western Canada’s winter
We have to gaze beyond our shores to catch a glimpse of what may influence our winter weather across Western Canada this year.
Forecasters recently announced the beginning of La Niña near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. We’re no stranger to this setup—we’ve seen four La Niña events over the past five winters, after all.
La Niña’s extended reach can bring below-seasonal temperatures to Western Canada while an active storm track builds back east. A weak La Niña, like the one we’re in right now, will likely have a more subdued effect on our seasonal conditions.
But it’s another phenomenon much closer to home that forecasters see as the potential key driver of our winter ahead.
Water temperatures in the northern Pacific have run exceptionally warm for the past several months. This excess of toasty ocean water could create an atmospheric block that allows chilly air to spill south across much of Canada. We could also see surges of mild Pacific air flow inland from time to time.
There’s a catch. Waters off the coasts of Alaska and British Columbia started cooling in early October. Cooler ocean temperatures would keep those cooler temperatures pooled up across Western Canada, painting a question mark over how much influence the Pacific will be able to exert over our patterns.
Looking ahead to Western Canada’s winter temperatures
Given that basic setup, here’s a preliminary look at what may be in store this season across British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Forecasters see an abrupt transition to winter throughout Canada during November.
This would allow the winter season to begin with widespread below-seasonal temperatures from B.C.’s Interior east across the Prairies. Cities such as Kelowna, Calgary, Regina, and Winnipeg may have to dig out those heavy coats earlier than they’d hoped.
Meanwhile, the B.C. Coast and portions of the territories up north could start the winter season with near-normal temperatures.
Heading deeper into the winter months, forecasters see hints that sustained periods of below-seasonal temperatures will build across the heart of the Prairies.
Based on current trends, near-seasonal temperatures are possible for much of B.C., portions of Alberta, and much of the territories. Sustained above-seasonal temperatures may spread over northwestern B.C. and the Yukon—a small consolation prize when Yellowknife’s average daytime temperature in January is -21.6°C.
Early pattern may portend good news for ski resorts
The chilly conditions expected at the beginning of winter may be good news for ski resorts that depend on atmospheric fortunes during the colder months. We will have to watch the potential for mid-season hiccups throughout Western Canada with ridges building in from time to time.
Higher elevations across the Rockies have already seen their first snowfall of the season. Most communities on the Prairies average their season’s first snowfall during the month of October.
December is the snowiest month of the year in places like Vancouver and Kelowna, as well as Regina and Winnipeg. Cities farther north on the Prairies—Edmonton, Prince Albert, and Saskatoon—usually shovel their highest monthly snowfall totals come January.
Start preparing for winter weather before the deep chills arrive, and stay tuned for the full winter forecast coming out on Nov. 26.