Weekend storm narrowly divides southern Ontario between rain, snow
A fine line will dictate dreary rain from shovellable snows as southern Ontario strolls into the opening days of December
Southern Ontario will only catch a brief breather between systems this weekend as an active storm track continues to send waves of precipitation over the region.
Friday’s precipitation will linger into early Saturday morning before leading into a calmer second half of the day. After this current bout winds down, we’re looking ahead to the next impactful system pushing in for Sunday that could bring disruptive conditions to some communities.
EASTERN ONTARIO FORECAST: Heavy snows could hamper Ottawa, Montreal travel into Monday
December started with a bit of a wintry tease for some folks across southern Ontario on Friday after rain changed over to snow during the afternoon hours. Heavy precipitation rates helped cool temperatures a little lower than expected, bringing a touch of conversational snow into the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
This round of precipitation will continue pushing east into the first half of Saturday, allowing calmer conditions to prevail for most through Saturday evening.
Our next adventure in active weather will spend Saturday gearing up south of the border. This low-pressure system will track just south of the Great Lakes heading into Sunday, putting much of southern Ontario right on the dividing line between annoying rain and some wintry weather.
MUST SEE: Canada's Winter Forecast: El Niño a critical factor for the season ahead
Right now, the most probable scenario is that moisture siphoning up from the Gulf of Mexico will push milder air over much of southern Ontario, allowing precipitation to remain liquid rain for communities in the southwest and across the Golden Horseshoe.
However, like on Friday, heavy precipitation rates can force a transition over to west snow. While snow can’t be totally ruled out south of Orangeville, it’s the less likely scenario.
Temperatures just north of the GTA will remain cold enough for accumulating snow, with a healthy dusting expected north of Highway 401 through Monday. Folks at higher elevation around Orangeville and along Highway 10 could see a shovellable snowfall by Monday.
Eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, including Ottawa and Montreal especially, will take the brunt of the wintry side of this system. Folks around Montreal could easily see 15+ cm of snow by Monday.
Folks across the traditional snowbelts downwind of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay should remain on the lookout for potential lake-effect snow squalls firing up behind this system late Sunday into Monday. This lake-effect potential will pad snowfall totals across portions of cottage country and the Georgian Bay shores, and the snow may affect the Monday morning commute.
Widespread chilly conditions are expected to return to the region by the middle of next week, with temperatures outside of eastern Ontario trending a bit milder by the following weekend.
Check back through the weekend for the latest on this system’s impacts across Ontario.