Tropical Storm Melissa poses flash flood and landslide risks in tourist areas
Tropical Storm Melissa brings heavy rainfall and flooding risks to Hispaniola and Jamaica this week
Weather Highlights:
Melissa is forecast to bring heavy rainfall to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible in affected areas
Hurricane conditions are possible in Haiti's southwestern peninsula, where a hurricane watch is in effect. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday
There is considerable uncertainty in Melissa's track and intensity forecast. Residents in other parts of Hispaniola and Cuba should closely monitor updates
Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is moving over the central Caribbean Sea and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Haiti's southwestern peninsula, from the Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica.
Most forecast models indicate significant or rapid intensification over the next 3-5 days, with the potential for Melissa to strengthen into a major hurricane early next week.
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Melissa is expected to bring between 125 to 250 mm of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic through Friday, with higher totals possible depending on the storm’s track and speed. The heavy rainfall raises the risk of flash flooding and mudslides in the region.
Meanwhile, Aruba, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica could see 25 to 75 mm of rain through Friday, with the potential for flash and urban flooding in Puerto Rico during this time.
Swells from Melissa are expected to reach Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba over the next few days.
The Caribbean has had a quiet hurricane season so far, but Atlantic waters remain warm
Despite a near-average hurricane season so far, no storms have impacted the Caribbean Sea this year. In fact, Tropical Storm Melissa is the latest "first storm" to form in the Caribbean Sea since 1997, a year with no storms in the region.
A lack of tropical activity in the region has allowed sea surface temperatures to remain around 30°C or higher, conditions highly favourable for tropical development as the season progresses.
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It’s too early to determine the storm's potential impact along the U.S. coast. However, Melissa has a higher chance of approaching the U.S. compared to storms that have stayed further out in the mid-Atlantic earlier this season.
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So far, high-pressure systems over the Atlantic have consistently steered storms away from the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast, directing them back out to sea. At times, well-timed high-pressure systems over the continent have added an extra barrier, protecting both Canada and the U.S. from significant impacts this season.
Although these weather patterns have reduced direct impacts on land, the Atlantic remains active. Monitoring potential tropical developments in the coming weeks is still essential, especially with sea surface temperatures supporting future storm growth.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30.