Too cold for major snow? How Quebec may be spared from big U.S. storm
A U.S. winter storm is set to bring some snow to southern Quebec early next week, driven by Arctic air and Gulf moisture fueling the system
A massive U.S. winter storm is being closely watched as it could bring significant impacts to parts of Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada through Monday.
DON'T MISS: Extreme cold targets Canada as the polar vortex buckles
A frigid Arctic air mass in Eastern Canada is colliding with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, forming a boundary that is producing heavy snow and ice from Texas to the East Coast.
Two lows tracking toward Canada are creating a complex setup, leading to some forecast uncertainty, particularly in Quebec. Initially, frigid temperatures near -20°C could result in lighter snow due to the reduced moisture capacity of extremely cold air, which produces smaller snowflakes.
However, snowfall rates may increase overnight Sunday into Monday as temperatures "warm" to the minus teens, allowing for more efficient snowflake formation. Currently, snowfall totals of 5-15 cm are possible in southern Quebec, while parts of Ontario and the Maritimes could see over 20 cm.
Dangerously low temperatures across southern Quebec this weekend
Frigid Arctic air will sweep across Quebec this weekend, bringing daytime highs near -20°C and overnight lows around -30 with the windchill. Montreal is forecast to hit a high of -21°C on Saturday, a rare occurrence last seen on January 2, 2014.
A strong U.S. storm will track northeast into southern Quebec on Sunday. The snowy northern edge of the system could arrive Sunday evening. Initially colder temperatures may limit snowfall totals, with 5-15 cm expected.
RELATED: When is the cold too cold? How extreme cold warnings are issued
Despite these amounts, heavy snow and blowing snow could lead to very difficult travel conditions and a challenging Monday morning commute.
Storm confidence weighing on a couple of key elements
Two key factors are influencing confidence in this storm’s forecast: how far north the storm tracks before transferring its energy to the East Coast low, and how efficiently snow forms initially in the -20°C temperatures.
DON'T MISS: A winter storm’s track can make or break your forecast
The storm track has shifted further north, increasing confidence for snowfall in southern Quebec. However, the exact path remains uncertain, which could affect snowfall totals. As a result, there is still some variability in expected accumulations.
There is moderate to high confidence in the storm’s timing, expected to impact the region from Sunday into Monday. Stay updated for more details as the forecast evolves.
WATCH: A major Arctic outbreak is building over Canada
Thumbnail image courtesy: Rachid Khelafi, submitted