Steamy Caribbean could support tropical development next week
No time to let our guards down yet with a month and a half left in this year’s hurricane season
Forecasters are watching the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean next week as a disturbance moves toward the region.
No tropical systems have entered the Caribbean Sea this season—an unusual occurrence that’s left the region’s waters exceptionally toasty heading into October.
This potential is a reminder to coastal residents that Atlantic hurricane season continues well into the autumn months.
DON’T MISS: Autumn can still produce intense hurricanes across the Atlantic
Tropical wave moving toward the Caribbean
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave moving west across the open Atlantic Ocean about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
“Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward,” the NHC said on Friday afternoon, assigning it a 30 per cent chance of development over the next seven days.
No tropical systems in the Caribbean this year
Despite a near-average season up to this point, none of this year's storms have touched the Caribbean Sea. If the trend holds up, this would be the first season since 1997 that we haven't seen any tropical systems enter the Caribbean.
Tropical storms and hurricanes churn up the ocean and leave cooler waters in their wake. A complete lack of storm activity in the region has left the Caribbean positively toasty heading into the middle of October.
Water temperatures across much of the region are running 30°C or warmer, which is more than hot enough to support tropical development. The combination of warm water temperatures and potentially favourable atmospheric conditions may allow this tropical wave to develop by next week.
This has been an odd hurricane season so far
This year’s hurricane season has produced 12 named storms, four hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Many of those storms were relatively weak and short lived.
However, thanks to those three major hurricanes—Erin, Gabrielle, and Humberto—the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is running about 91 per cent of normal for the middle of October.
Higher ACE values correspond to stronger and longer-lived storms. Particularly intense storms like Erin and Humberto can compensate for a collection of weaker storms like we’ve seen this year.
Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30. As we get later in the season, storms typically form closer to land in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
Autumn is known for producing some intense hurricanes, which are especially dangerous given their close proximity to land.
Header image created using graphics and imagery from NOAA and Canva.