Many Canadians dream of a white Christmas, but what are the odds of it?
Discover what defines a white Christmas and a perfect Christmas, and see which cities are most and least likely to see snow on Dec. 25, based on decades of data
The official countdown to Christmas is on, so now we play the waiting game on where in Canada there will be a snowy or white Dec. 25.
Well, yes and no.
DON’T MISS: What exactly makes for a 'white Christmas'?
Although we wouldn't know an exact forecast or storm track for any weather in the country this far out, the odds are increasing that some major cities might have a higher chance of a white Christmas this year.
We can put the puzzle together by looking at historical climate data for many of the Canadian cities and formulate a pattern based on past instances of it occurring.
Definition of a white Christmas
First, meteorologists have a specific definition for what constitutes a ‘white Christmas.’
We have to have at least two cm of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day in order for an official declaration of a white Christmas. It doesn’t matter if it’s freshly fallen or a snowpack that’s been there for days. If there are two cm present at the critical moment, it counts.
There’s also what meteorologists would call a “perfect Christmas,” a term given to an instance of two centimetres or more of snowfall is on the ground, while fresh snow is actively falling during the morning on Dec. 25.
Historical data paints a picture
When reviewing a 26-year climate period, Iqaluit, Nvt., Whitehorse, Yukon, Yellowknife, N.W.T., Winnipeg, Man., and Kenora, Ont., have the highest, historical odds for a white Christmas.
On the other end, Vancouver, Victoria and Penticton, B.C., Toronto, Ont., and Halifax, N.S., have some of the lowest chances historically.
Some cities like Brandon, Man., Happy Valley-Goose Bay, N.L., and Quebec City, Que., have, historically speaking, more than a 90 per cent chance of seeing a white Christmas in any given year.
When comparing multiple datasets over a 30-year period, we see that Brandon, Iqaluit, St. John’s, N.L., Vancouver and Whitehorse likelihoods could change but it is not guaranteed.
Ultimately, though, the placement of cold Arctic air and plumes of moisture have to align perfectly to deliver a white or a perfect Christmas.
What could 2025 Christmas Day bring?
December 2025 got off to a snowy and chilly start for parts of the country, a trend that could help tip the scales more towards a white Christmas for many communities. Most of Canada will trend below seasonal with numerous visits from the polar vortex and an active storm track from coast to coast.
However, we will be monitoring a weak La Niña pattern that is taking shape, setting the stage for what we can expect heading into the holidays this year.
With files from Dennis Mersereau, a digital journalist and weather specialist at The Weather Network.