Atlantic hurricane peak has unprecedented lull, but don't write off the season
Hurricane season reaches peak date with unusual lack of tropical activity
Climatologically, Sept. 10 marks the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Historically, tropical outlooks from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) on this date have consistently featured either a named storm or an area of potential tropical development.
DON'T MISS: Autumn can still produce intense hurricanes across the Atlantic
This year is an outlier, though, with no named storms or active development regions in the Sept. 10 outlook––the first time this has occurred in 16 years.
Despite this lull, parts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic remain primed for activity.
Sea surface temperatures in these areas are at record-breaking highs for early September, creating vast reserves of potential hurricane energy.
If other atmospheric conditions become favourable, the warming could fuel significant storm development in the latter half of the season.
DON'T MISS: How a mammoth hurricane rapidly intensifies in mere hours
Hurricane season officially runs until Nov. 30, and while the upcoming week appears unfavourable for storm formation, the possibility of increased activity in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
In fact, Colorado State University (CSU) advises "considerable caution" on writing off the rest of the season, it said in a forecast update.
"Given the broadly TC (tropical cyclone)-favourable, sea surface temperature conditions just discussed, as well as the forecast TC-favourable wind shear conditions for later September/early October, we advise considerable caution on writing off the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season," said CSU. "As we saw last year, Atlantic TC seasons can change from quiet to busy in a hurry.”
The average Atlantic hurricane season typically sees 14 named storms.
This year, NOAA's forecast predicted an above-average season with 17 named storms. To date, six named storms have been recorded.
As history has shown, it only takes one impactful storm to define a hurricane season. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should remain vigilant and prepared for any late-season developments.