Eastern Pacific hurricane season intensifies, with more storms on the horizon
The eastern Pacific hurricane season is underway with Alvin already formed and more storms expected as conditions favour development.
The eastern Pacific hurricane is heating up — and it's only just begun.
The season, which runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, has already produced its first named storm: Tropical Storm Alvin.
Alvin developed at the end of May and reached gusts of up to 95 km/h, but forecasters believe it won't be alone for long.
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The U.S. National Hurricane Center is monitoring three disturbances south of Mexico, with at least two expected to intensify into named storms during the next 48 hours. If they do, say hello to Barbara and Cosme.
Favourable conditions setting the stage
Storms tend to develop earlier when the environment is ready. Lower wind shear—or less disruption in wind patterns—is allowing tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
A neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) keeps sea surface temperatures close to normal.
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This balanced setup makes it difficult to predict how intense the season will be, but cooler waters in parts of the Pacific — caused by a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) — may help to calm things down later.
What to expect this season
According to NOAA, the Pacific basin is expected to see 12 to 18 named storms, with five to 10 reaching hurricane strength. Of those, two to five could become major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher.
In comparison, last year saw 14 named storms, five hurricanes and three major hurricanes. However, it still looks small in comparison to the record-breaking 1992 season, which saw 27 named storms, 16 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes.
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While the outlook is not dire, forecasters say it's still important to remain alert, particularly as conditions can change quickly.
For now, all eyes are focused on the Pacific and what the coming days may bring.
Thumbnail credit to Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.