Canada’s odds of a white Christmas may hinge on this single storm
A storm tracking from coast to coast may determine whether or not there’s snow on the ground on Christmas morning
December kicked off with a roar from coast to coast as several bouts of cold and snow covered just about every corner of Canada.
Will any of that snow stick around for Christmas on Thursday, Dec. 25?
For many Canadians, your wishes for a white Christmas will come down to a single storm expected to track across the country next week.
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What is a white Christmas?
Crooners like Bing Crosby helped cement the idea of a ‘white Christmas’ in the minds of millions across the northern hemisphere.
Forecasters define a white Christmas as one where there’s at least 2 cm of snow on the ground at 7:00 a.m. local time. A community can experience a so-called ‘perfect Christmas’ if there’s snow on the ground with snow falling at the time of the observation.
Historically, the odds of a white Christmas are better than a coin flip for many communities throughout Canada. Snow on the ground is a virtual certainty up north around Yellowknife and Whitehorse, while it’s iffy many years in places like Toronto and Halifax.
Western Canada’s odds grow for many cities
Overall, the odds of a white Christmas likely hinge on a single storm expected to move from coast to coast next week.
This system will push ashore in British Columbia on Sunday. Rain on the coast will mean low chances of a white Christmas in Vancouver, where we last saw one back in 2021.
Freezing levels below 1,000 metres will make snow likely throughout B.C.’s Interior and perhaps down to the valley bottoms, raising our chances in Kelowna and Kamloops.
The odds are looking much better over on the Prairies, where we’ve already seen significant snowfall with more expected in the lead-up to the holiday on Thursday.
Arctic air anchored in the region will allow any snow that falls to stick through Christmas morning. Forecasters are confident in a white Christmas in Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, and surrounding areas on the Prairies.
Alternating patterns of cold and snow, then warm and windy, have dominated southern Alberta recently. The system hitting B.C. will redevelop east of the Rockies, possibly bringing crucial snowfall to Calgary on the big day.
An uncertain holiday forecast across Eastern Canada
Back east, December has seen numerous snowy clippers track south of Ontario and Quebec. This storm track will change in the days to come.
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Incoming clippers are expected to track through Lake Superior, bringing snow to the north but liquid precipitation and periods of thaws in the south that will chip away at the existing snowpack.
Forecast confidence is low for a white Christmas for communities south of the 401, including Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton, and east toward Kingston.
A healthy snowpack in the traditional snowbelts, as well as across northern Ontario, will deliver these regions a high chance of at least 2 cm of snow on the ground Thursday morning.
We’re watching that low-pressure system as it moves east. Snow is possible in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec by Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing the odds of a white Christmas in Ottawa, Montreal, and along the St. Lawrence.
Folks in Atlantic Canada will have to closely watch that same storm’s track to determine who will see a snowy or snowless Christmas morning throughout the region.
This clipper could intensify into a significant winter storm on Christmas Eve, but we’re almost a week out from the event and there’s currently low confidence in the scenario.
Major cities across Atlantic Canada, including Halifax and St. John’s, currently have low chances for a white Christmas, but they also have the most room for adjustments as forecasters monitor the progress of this approaching system.