Signs of summer: Canada’s May outlook provides hope for warmth
May will bring a strong finish to spring across Canada -- something many have been anxiously waiting for as the season continues to sputter
The unofficial start of the summer season is just over two weeks away!
If that statement took you by surprise, you are not alone. We really are indeed just 15 days away from the start of the May long weekend, which many consider to be the unofficial start to the summer season.
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Many of us just recently said our final goodbye to a winter season that lingered on and on, and most of us are still waiting for more consistently warm spring weather to arrive, as well. So, besides the calendar, are there any signs that summer weather will soon be here?
While our expectations of April are typically too high, it is fair to say spring did drag its feet for much of April. The temperature anomaly map below shows that most of Canada’s population saw cooler than normal or near normal temperatures during the past month.
Cooler weather wins out as May begins across northern and eastern Canada
The first several days of May will bring a couple more shots of chilly weather to eastern Canada.
While most of Canada will see changeable temperatures, the computer model forecast below shows that cooler than normal temperatures will win out across most of northern and eastern Canada.
However, it will be a different story across the Prairies, where the first weekend of May will bring a taste of summer.
Warmer weather dominates across the Prairies, eventually expanding eastwards
While the warm weather across the Prairies will be interrupted at times, we expect that warmer than normal temperatures will continue to dominate as we head deeper into the month. In addition, we expect this warm pattern will expand east across Ontario, Quebec, and even into parts of Atlantic Canada at times as we progress through the second week of May.
The model forecast below for May 6-13 shows widespread warmer than normal temperatures could dominate from the Rockies to southern Quebec, and this should include a taste of summer weather, especially across the Prairies and into northwestern Ontario.
Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to be closer to seasonal across Atlantic Canada, and parts of B.C. are expected to tip to the cool side of seasonal.
Dry conditions heighten wildfire risk ahead of the May long weekend
An extended stretch of drier weather is also expected during the second week of May from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada. This will result in an increasing wildfire risk as we approach the May long weekend.
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The precipitation anomaly map below for the second week of May shows the anticipated drier pattern for eastern Canada. Meanwhile, we expect near normal precipitation across most of western Canada.
Milder temperatures widespread for the second half of May
As we look ahead to the second half of May, we expect a similar temperature pattern. Warmer than normal temperatures should continue to dominate across central Canada, and at times, the warm weather should expand into Ontario and southern Quebec.
Temperatures will be more changeable across eastern Quebec and Atlantic Canada, and the back and forth temperature swings should come close to offsetting each other and result in near normal temperatures.
The shots of cooler weather across eastern Canada will interrupt the periods of warm weather across southern Ontario and southern Quebec, but we expect that temperatures will still tip to the warm side of seasonal across this region.
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Across B.C. and the Yukon territory, we expect that temperatures will tip to the cool side of seasonal. Fortunately, this should help the region avoid an early start to the wildfire season.
Spring will finish strong!
In summary, after a sluggish start to the season, spring will finish strong across most of Canada during the month of May and it will include a few tastes of summer-like weather. And if you live across the Prairies you will have no trouble believing that summer is just around the corner with extended periods of summer-like weather ahead.