Calgary on track to see its driest September in more than 100 years
While it wouldn't take much rain to meet or exceed its dry September record, Calgary is on par with 1908's total rainfall for the month. Could there be more to come?
It has been an exceptionally dry September for Calgary, Alta., and the forecast does not bring much change in the coming days.
In fact, the city could see its driest September in more than 100 years.
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So far, Calgary has only picked up 0.4 mm of rain this month, putting it on pace to see its driest September since 1908, when 0.5 mm of rain fell. For context, the average September rainfall is about 37.1 mm. The record for the month dates back to the 1885 (0 mm recorded).
Moving forward, the precipitation normally tapers off throughout the fall, dropping to 17.1 mm in October. This basically means that the window for significant precipitation is closing fast.
A persistent ridge of high pressure brings warm and dry weather, which has dominated much of September, keeping storm systems away from the city.
What will the end of September look like?
While it would not take much rain to match or exceed 1908’s 0.5 mm record, precipitation chances in the next seven days appear low in the southern region. As we close September, another ridge of high pressure is forecast to rebuild over the region, which could steer away rainy systems once again.
In terms of the temperature pattern, it's possible to trend above seasonal as we head into the final week of September, with single-digit overnight and early-morning temperatures.
Calgary's daytime high for the last week of September is 16°C. It is possible for it to see several more days in the 20s before the month ends.
What are the impacts of the lack of rain?
There is an elevated risk for wildfires. Alberta’s wildfire season is far from over, extending until Oct. 31.
We have already seen smoke drift into British Columbia from the fires in the U.S., reminding us that we are done yet with the wildfire season. In fact, when we take a look at the fire danger rating, some regions indicate severe to exceptional in southern and central zones.
So, in conclusion, as September comes to an end, Calgary and much of Alberta could establish a record-setting, dry month.