300+ mm: Major flood threat builds in China this weekend
A growing typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean could bring more than 300 mm of rain to parts of China through early next week
Significant flooding is possible in portions of southeastern China through this weekend into early next week as a budding typhoon threatens the region.
Tropical Storm Noul grew more organized Friday as it churned south of Taiwan. The system will approach mainland China into this weekend, posing a risk for widespread flooding rains.
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Forecasters are closely monitoring a strengthening tropical storm in the western Pacific for likely impacts across southeastern China beginning late Saturday (local time) and continuing through early next week.
The latest outlook from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows Noul peaking as the equivalent of a Category 2 with maximum winds of about 155 km/h before landfall east of Hong Kong late Sunday.
Noul will gradually weaken after landfall as it pushes inland toward central China over the next several days.
Rain will cause more issues than wind alone. Latest model guidance shows the potential for more than 300 mm of rain, with isolated totals as much as 500 mm, falling through Tuesday across mountainous areas in the path of the storm.
This much heavy rain in a short period of time will lead to significant flash flooding and landslide concerns throughout the region. Areas at risk include several cities with a population of 1,000,000 or greater, including Huizhou, Heyuan, and Shaoguan.
Southeastern China is a frequent target for tropical cyclones tracking through the far western Pacific basin. The region averages several tropical landfalls per year, including the occasional powerful typhoon. Similar storms in the past were capable of billions of dollars in damage.