2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast nears: Watching these factors
Mark your calendars for April 3rd as we share Colorado State University’s first tropical outlook
The start of the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching on June 1st. What could 2025 bring? Mark your calendars for April 3rd as we share Colorado State University’s first tropical outlook, and what it could mean for Canadians!
While a lot can change over the next couple of months, here are a few of the key variables that CSU is analyzing as they develop their forecast.
Warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Tropical storms require SSTs of 27C or warmer to develop. Warmer waters can offer more fuel for storms. Focusing on the main development region, where tropical activity tends to evolve (circled in blue), SSTs are currently warmer than normal but not as warm as recent years.
However, warm ocean temperatures do not always correlate to an active season. Ideal development conditions also require high moisture environments and lighter upper level winds. How often will both of these come together? It's uncertain.
La Nina on its way out, Neutral on its way in
One of the more important drivers for hurricane seasons is not going to be present this year. The La Nina signal is declining more and more each day. By April, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects we will enter a neutral state that likely lingers for the summer. What could that mean for hurricane numbers?
As a reminder, La Nina typically brings a more active hurricane environment (light upper level winds) while El Nino typically records less activity (strong upper level wind).
Without either La Nina or El Nino, neutral states tend to bring… well a little bit of both. In the past, neutral states have recorded: 3 active, one normal and 2 less active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1996. It is not a strong global driver for or against hurricane activity. Instead smaller scale features will likely take more of a front seat, which are very tricky to forecast several months in advance.
Triggers:
Whether the environment is ideal or not, tropical storms require a trigger to kick start their development. These are primarily found west of Africa. Forecasters consider how active the west African monsoon is: a higher number of systems that come off the coast of Africa often correlate to higher number of Atlantic tropical storms.
Which way will the 2025 trend be? Be sure to check back with us on April 3rd to see the first official outlook of the season.