Show or no show? Canada has some 'wild cards' for northern lights display
An intense geomagnetic storm at G4 strength reached Earth’s atmosphere early on June 1, and is expected to create a northern lights show for parts of Canada Sunday night, if wildfire smoke and cloud cover aren't blocking the skies
Many Canadians will either be disappointed or delighted with the result of a predicted aurora borealis display on Sunday night, arising from the latest geomagnetic storm to hit the Earth.
The forecast of a G4-magnitude storm arrived early Sunday morning as predicted, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the sun in the evening hours on Friday, May 30.
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Effects of the G4 storm were first observed as far south as California and New Mexico, and the disturbed conditions––albeit lower in intensity--are expected to persist into the early hours on Monday, June 2, according to the SWPC. The G4 rating on the geomagnetic storm scale is a severe disturbance of Earth’s magnetic field.
The disruption to Earth’s magnetic field is caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) off the sun's surface, which contain charged particles that move at thousands of kilometres per second toward our planet.
Sunday night auroras might be visible as far south as Illinois and Oregon
The K-index, which ranges from 0 to 9 and features higher numbers correlating to conditions that may allow auroras to dip farther south in latitude, reached an 8 on early Sunday morning.
(Mia Gordon/The Weather Network)
"Kp is an excellent indicator of disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and is used by SWPC to decide whether geomagnetic alerts and warnings need to be issued for users who are affected by these disturbances," said the SWPC.
The Kp level should be around a 7 on Sunday evening (G3-level storm) from 8 p.m. to 11 p.m.––optimal viewing time for the northern lights--if there are no blockages in the sky, like clouds or wildfire smoke.
The level means the auroras could be seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
Wild-card factors for the northern lights
The northern lights can be highly variable and sporadic as the charged particles interact with Earth’s magnetic field and the upper atmosphere.
There will be multiple factors in Canada for a possible aurora show, but if it comes to fruition will depend on where you are in the country.
The B.C. coast will have increasing clouds, but the Interior will have ideal viewing conditions in the Okanagan Valley.
Moving east, with a mix of wildfire smoke and cloud cover in portions of the Prairies, the conditions aren't ideal, but some locations may luck out in the end.
In southern Ontario, including the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), clear skies are forecast on Sunday night, but light pollution will obscure a portion of the show, so head to rural locales like cottage country for a better chance of a more ideal view.
On the East Coast, optimal sky conditions are expected in Nova Scotia, but some lingering clouds are expected across other Maritime provinces and Newfoundland.
No major disruptions to satellite and communication systems or power grids are expected, but it could lead to some issues, which are mitigable, including more frequent and longer periods of degradation of global positioning system (GPS) degradation.
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With files from Tyler Hamilton, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.