The Northern Lights may shine above Canada in the nights ahead
Look up! You may see the Aurora Borealis dancing across the sky above!
A volatile region of the Sun, crackling with flares and blasting solar storms into space, is setting us up for some intense space weather in the nights ahead!
Over the past few weeks, solar astronomers and space weather enthusiasts, alike, have witnessed an amazing sequence of eruptions from the Sun. These coronal mass ejections, aka solar storms, occurred either on the opposite side of the Sun from us, or were aimed well away from Earth. However, all were attributed to a single group of sunspots, known as Active Region 4274, which has rotated into view along the Sun's eastern limb just in the past few days.
The view of the Sun in the centre of this image, taken by the SUVI instrument on NOAA's GOES-19 weather satellite, shows off several bright 'active regions', as of Nov. 5, 2025, at around 16 UTC. Near the centre of the SUVI view is a subtle darker region, which notes the location of a large coronal hole. The four inset images, captured by the NASA/ESA SOHO spacecraft's LASCO C3 coronagraph, reveal four large coronal mass ejections that are attributed to AR 4274 (labelled in yellow). (NOAA, NASA/ESA, Scott Sutherland)
On the morning of November 4, a powerful solar flare exploded from AR 4274.
Measured as an X1.8-class flare, it is the strongest we've seen from the Sun since the X1.9 flare on June 19. It also ranks as the fifth strongest flare of 2025, so far. That's not all. In just the few days since AR 4274 appeared from around the eastern limb of the Sun, it has blasted out seven M-class flares.
This image of the Sun, shaded in teal to differentiate it from other filtered views captured by NOAA's SUVI instrument on the GOES-19 weather satellite, shows the X1.8-class solar flare emitted by active region 4274 on November 4, 2025, at 17:34 UTC (12:34 p.m. EST). (NOAA)
Additionally, over the past three days, more coronal mass ejections have erupted from this region of the Sun's surface.
The first two of these are headed towards the space 'behind' Earth, and are unlikely to have any effect on us. However, as AR 4274 continues its volatile activity, there is little doubt that we'll see even more flares and CMEs from it, which means that we'll likely see more aurora activity over the next week or two.
Geomagnetic storm!
Due to what appears to be the combined effects of the solar wind and the very edge of the November 3 CME reaching Earth, NOAA SWPC is already seeing G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm effects as of Wednesday evening.
They have also issued a warning, with G2 (moderate) storm levels possible between this evening and the morning of November 6.
Also, thanks to the latest CME, which erupted early on Wednesday, November 5, we are now expecting our first direct impacts from AR 4274, as soon as Thursday night.
The graphic below shows the progress of the November 3 & 4 CMEs, along with the new one from November 5, as plotted by NOAA SWPC's WSA-ENLIL computer model.
(NOAA SWPC/Scott Sutherland)
As indicated in the zoomed views, the Nov. 5 coronal mass ejection is quite a bit faster than the previous two, so much so that it should catch up to the November 4 cloud late on the 6th (UTC time). Shortly after, in the early hours of November 7 (UTC time), it is expected to reach Earth, with the densest portion of the cloud likely to impact the planet's geomagnetic field.
NOAA SWPC has issued a G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm watch for late on Thursday, November 6 through Friday, November 7. Due to the uncertainties in the exact timing of when the CME arrives, it may impact anytime between Thursday night and Friday morning.
"There is a fair measure of confidence in a Earth-directed aspect to this CME and a moderate level of confidence in timing of the CME arrival — which we anticipate with a range from as early as Thursday evening to Friday morning EST," SWPC forecasters said on the website. "However, as is usual with these events, we have less confidence in the intensity of the resultant geomagnetic storm upon eventual CME arrival and passage. Therefore, this G3 Watch represents our forecast based on potential. We have to wait until the CME arrives at the solar wind observatory spacecraft located at Lagrange Point 1 (L1)."
To confirm the timing of the CME's arrival, though, we need to wait until it passes the ACE and DSCOVR satellites, located at Lagrange Point 1, 1.5 million kms out in space, directly between Earth and the Sun. Once we spy the characteristic changes in conditions there — increased particle density, speed, and energy (temperature), along with an intensification of the magnetic field strength and a possible change in magnetic field direction — we know that the CME has arrived and it will only be a short time, perhaps up to an hour, before it reaches Earth.
"The normal order of events for a CME impact at Earth are the arrival of the shock front followed later by the magnetic cloud. CME shock arrival can lead to immediate and sudden escalated geomagnetic responses. After shock passage, the strong magnetic field contained within the CME arrives some time later, that is when geomagnetic activity can increase dramatically if the magnetic field is favorable (aligned opposite Earth’s)," SWPC explained.
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(Header image courtesy of Matt Melnyk/provided to The Weather Network)