Good news! Asteroid 2024 YR4's Earth impact odds sharply drop
As predicted, we are most likely completely safe from this small asteroid, but now there's a greater chance of it striking the Moon in 2032!
After briefly surpassing the potential threat of all other known asteroids, further observations have rapidly diminished the danger posed by 2024 YR4.
Since its discovery just after Christmas, asteroid 2024 YR4 has caused some alarm. Initially flagged as a potentially hazardous asteroid, with just over a 1 per cent chance of hitting Earth in December of 2032, the odds of impact kept rising as more observations came in.
Earlier this week, they even topped 3 per cent. According to the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC), this surpassed the highest impact probability set by asteroid Apophis, of 2.7 per cent, set back in 2004.
Any danger from Apophis has been completely ruled out by now. Based on new information gathered over the past few days, it's very likely the same will soon be true of 2024 YR4.
READ MORE: Could a collision cause asteroid Apophis to hit Earth? New study says no
Astronomers have been tracking 2024 YR4 with their telescopes, and with those added observations, NASA and the ESA have gained a better understanding of exactly what path this object follows as it orbits the Sun.
The Earth Impact Risk Summary for 2024 YR4, with data up to February 20, 2025, has significantly reduced the danger from this asteroid. (NASA CNEOS)
As a result, its odds of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032 have dropped — first from 3.1 per cent down to 1.5 per cent as of February 19, and then down to 0.27 per cent as of February 20. Currently, there's just a 1 in 370 chance of impact, with a 99.73 per cent chance that it will miss.
As noted in the image above, from NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4's risk level on the Torino scale has even dropped from 3 (a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers) to 1 (a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger).
The Torino Scale of Impact Risk. (NASA CNEOS)
The full text of a Torino scale of 1 reads: "A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0."
One remarkable thing about the new observations is that, while they are reducing the risk of impact with Earth, they are actually increasing the odds that 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon.
The new uncertainy region for 2024 YR4's close enounter with the Earth-Moon system on December 22, 2032 has the asteroid's potential passes almost completely clearing Earth, but are now nearly centred on the orbit of the Moon. The original NEOCC image has been enlarged, with the location of the Moon on that date added based on NASA simulations. (ESA NEOCC/NASA CNEOS)
"With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%," Molly Wasser, the Outreach Coordinator for NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, posted on the agency's Planetary Defense blog. "NASA's planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory."
Given that the asteroid is likely around 60 metres wide, it would not cause any significant damage to the Moon if it hit. Also, it's doubtful anyone on Earth would notice the crater that formed, even if they were using a powerful telescope. If such an impact does take place, it may be up to NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to reveal the results of it.